Regional ocean forecasting systems and their applications: Design considerations of such a system for the South China Sea

Authors

  • Xiaochun Wang School of Marine Sciences, Jiangsu Research Center for Ocean Survey Technology, Nanjing University of Information and Science Technology, 219 NingLiu Road, Nanjing 210044, P.R. China
  • Liqing Zhao School of Marine Sciences, Jiangsu Research Center for Ocean Survey Technology, Nanjing University of Information and Science Technology, 219 NingLiu Road, Nanjing 210044, P.R. China
  • Zhijin Li MS 300-323, JPL/Caltech, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, California 91109, USA
  • Dimitris Menemenlis MS 300-323, JPL/Caltech, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, California 91109, USA

Keywords:

Regional Ocean Modeling System, data assimilation, nesting, ensemble

Abstract

Essential components and technical details of regional ocean forecasting systems configured from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are discussed with the goal of bridging the gap between user and ocean modeling communities. Recent development of these systems and applications are also surveyed. Design considerations of such a system for the South China Sea are discussed, based on regional dynamic characteristics and potential applications.

References

Blayo, E., Debreu, L., 1999. Adaptive mesh refinement for finite-difference ocean models: first experiments. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 29, 1239–1250.

Bryan, K., 1969. A numerical method for the study of the circulation of world ocean. J. Computational Physics 4, 347–376.

Chao, Y., Li, Z., Farrara J., McWilliams, J. C., Bellingham, J. Capet, X., Chavez, F., Choi, J.-K., Davis, R., Doyle J., Fratantoni, D. M., Li, P., Marchesiello, P., Moline, M. A., Paduan, J., Ramp, S., 2009. Development, implementation and evaluation of a data-assimilative ocean forecasting system off the central California coast. Deep-Sea Research II 56, 100–126.

Chapman, D. C., 1985. Numerical treatment of cross-shelf open boundaries in a barotropic coastal model. J. Phys. Oceanogr 15, 1060–1075.

Colas, F., Wang, X. Capet, X., Chao, Y., McWilliams, J.C., 2013. Untangling the roles of wind, run-off and tides in Prince William Sound. Continental Shelf Research 63, 79–89, doi:10.1016/j.csr.2012.05.002.

Da Silva, A.M., Young, C., Levitus, S., 1994. Atlas of surface marine data 1994, Vol 1, Algorithms and procedures. NOAA Atlas NESDIS, 6.

Daley, R., 1991. Atmospheric data analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Debreu, L., Marchesiello P., Penven P., and Cambon G., 2012 : Two-way nest- ing in split-explicit ocean models: algorithms, implementation and validation. Ocean Modelling 49–50, 1–21.

Evensen, G. 2003. The ensemble Kalman filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation. Ocean Dyn. 53, 343–367.

Farrara, J., Chao, Y., Li, Z., Wang, X., Zhang, H., Li, Z., He, R., Qian, H., 2012. A ROMS-based data assimilating ocean forecast system for the Gulf Of Mexico. AGU Ocean Science Meeting, Abstract.

Farrara, J., Chao, Y., Li, Z., Wang, X., Jin, X., Zhang, H., Li, P, Vu, Q., Ols- son, P. O., Schoch, G. C., Halverson, M., Moline, M. A., McWilliams, J. C., Colas, F., 2013. A data-assimilative ocean forecasting system for the Prince William Sound and an evaluation of its performance during Sound Predictions 2009. Continental Shelf Research 63, 193–208.

Flather, R.A., 1976. A tidal model of the north-west European continental shelf. Mem. Soc. Roy. Sci. Liege 6, 141–164.

Haidvogel, D. B., Arango, H., Budgell, W. P., Cornuelle, B.D., Curchitser, E., Lorenzo E. Di, Fennel, K., Geyer, W. R., Hermann, A. J., Lanerolle, L, Levin, J., McWilliams, J. C., Miller, A. J., Moore, A. M., Powell, T. M., Shchepetkin, A. F., Sherwood, C. R., Signell, R. P., Warner, J. C., Wilkin, J., 2008. Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the regional ocean modeling system. J. Comp. Phys. 227, 3595–3624.

He, R., Liu Y., Weisberg R. H., 2004. Coastal ocean wind fields gauged against the performance of an ocean circulation model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L143030, doi:10.1029/2003GL01019261.

Hu, J., Kawamura, H., Hong, H., Qi, Y., 2000. A review on the currents in the South China Sea: Seasonal circulation, South China Sea warm current, and Kuroshio intrusion. J. of Oceanography 56, 607–624.

Kondo, J., 1975. Air-sea bulk transfer coefficients in diabatic conditions. Boundary-Layer Met. 9, 91–112.

Large, W.G., and Pond, S., 1981. Open ocean momentum flux measurements in moderate to strong winds, J. of Physical Oceanography 11, 324–336.

Large, W.G., McWilliams, J.C., Doney, S.C., 1994. Oceanic vertical mixing: a review and a model with nonlocal boundary layer parameterization. Rev. Geophys. 32, 363–403.

Li, Z., Navon, I. M., 2001. Optimality of variational data assimilation and its relationship with the Kalman filter and smoother. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 127, 661–683.

Li, Z., Chao, Y., McWilliams, J. C., Ide, K., 2008a. A three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme for the Regional Ocean Modeling System. J. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 25, 2074–2090.

Li, Z., Chao, Y., McWilliams, J. C., Ide, K., 2008b. A three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme for the Regional Ocean Modeling System: Implementation and basic experiments. J. Geophys. Research 113, C05002, doi:10.1029/2006JC004042.

Li, Z., McWilliams J.C., Ide K., and Fararra J.D., 2015. Coastal ocean data assimilation using a multi-scale three-dimensional variational scheme. Ocean Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s10236-015-0850-x.

Liu, D. C., Nocedal, J., 1989. On the limited memory BFGS method for large scale optimization. Math. Program 45, 503–528.

Liu, Y., Weisberg, R. H., and Yuan Y., 2008. Patterns of upper layer circulation variability in the South China Sea from satellite altimetry using self-organizing map. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, Vol. 27, Supp., p 129–144.

Liu, Y., MacCready P., Hickey B. M., Dever E. P., Korso P. M., and Banas N. S., 2009. Evaluation of a coastal ocean circulation model for the Columbia River plume in summer 2004, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C000B04, doi:10.1029/2008JC004929

Liu, Y., Weisberg, R. H., Hu, C., Zheng, L. 2011, Trajectory forecast as a rapid response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Monitoring and Modeling the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: A record-breaking enterprise, Geophysical Monograph Series 195, American Geophysical Union.

Marchesiello, P., McWilliams, J.C., Shchepetkin, A., 2001. Open boundary condition for long-term integration of regional oceanic models. Ocean Modelling 3, 1–21.

Menemenlis, D., Campin, J., Heimbach, P., Hill, C., Lee, T., Nguyen A., Schodlok, M., Zhang, H., 2008. ECCO2: High resolution global ocean and sea ice data synthesis. Mercator Ocean Quarterly Newsletter 31, 13–21.

Metzger, E. J., SSmedstad O. M., Thoppil P. G., Hurlburt H. E., Wallcraft J. A. Cummings, A. J., Zamudio L., Franklin D. F., Posey P. G., Phelps M. W., Hogan P. J., Bub F. L., and Dehaan C. J., 2014, US. Navy operational global ocean and Arctic ice prediction systems, Oceanography 27, 31–43

Orlanski, I., 1976. A simple boundary condition for unbounded hyperbolic flows. J. of Computational Physics 21, 251–269.

Peng, S., Li Y., Gu X., Chen S., Wang D., Wang H., Zhang S., Lv W., Wang C., Liu B., Liu D., Lai Z., Lai W., Wang S., Feng Y., Zhang J., 2015., A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011–13, Wea. Forecasting 30, 471–485, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-14-00070.1.

Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F., Polakowski, M., 2005. Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rea. 133, 1155–1174.

Raymond, W. H., Kuo, H. L., 1984. A radiation boundary condition for multidimensional flows. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 110, 535–551.

Schmidt, A.C.K., Gangopahyay, A., 2013. An operational ocean circulation prediction system for the Northwest Atlantic: hindcast during July-September of 2006. Continental Shelf Research 63, 177–192.

Shchepetkin, A., McWilliams, J.C., 2005. The Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS): A split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate ocean model. Ocean Modelling 9, 347–404.

Shchepetkin, A., McWilliams, J.C., 2009. Correction and commentary for “Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the regional ocean modelng system” by Haidvogel et al. J. Comp. Phys. 227, pp. 3595–3624.

J. Comp. Phys. 228, 8985–9000.

Song, Y.T., Haidvogel, D., 1994. A semi-implicit ocean circulation model using a generalized topography-following coordinate system. J. Comput. Phys. 115, 228–244.

Shulman, I., Kindle, J., Derada, S., Anderson, S., Penta, B., and Martin, P., 2004. Development of hierarchy of nested models to study the California Current System, in Estuarine and Coastal Modeling. pp. 74–88. In: M. L. Spaulding (Ed.), Proceedings of 8th International Conference on Estuarine and Coastal Modeling. Am. Soc. of Civ. Eng., Reston.

Su, J., 2004. Overview of the South China Sea circulation and its influence on the coastal physical oceanography outside the Pearl River Estuary. Conti- nental Shelf Research 24, 1745–1760.

Wang, X., Chao, Y., Dong, C., Farrara, J., Li, Z., McWilliams, J.C., Paduan, J.D., Rosenfeld, L.K., 2009. Modeling tides in Monterey Bay, California. Deep Sea Research II 56, 219–231, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.08.012.

Wang, X., Chao, Y., Zhang, H., Farrara, J, Li, Z., Jin, X., Park, K., Colas, F., McWilliams, J. C., Paternostro, C., Shum, C. K., Yi, Y., Schoch, C., Olsson, P., 2013a. Modeling tides and their influence on circulation in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Continental Shelf Research 63, 126–137.

Wang, X., Chao Y., Thompson D. R., Chien S. A., Farrara J., Li P., Vu Q,., and Zhang H., Levin J. C., Gangopadhyay A., 2013b. Multi-model ensemble forecasting and glider path planning in the Mid-Atlantic Bight. 63, 223–234. Continental Shelf Research, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2012.07.0

Wang, Y. Wei Z., Lian Z., Yang Y., 2015. Development of an ocean current forecast system for the South China Sea, Aquatic Procedia 3, 157–164.

Warner, J.C., Armstrong, B., He, R., Zambon, J. B., 2010. Development of a coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system. Ocean Modelling 35, 230–244.

Zhang, K., Moridis, G. J., Wu, N., Li, X., Reagan, M. T., 2010. Evaluation of alternative horizontal well designs for gas production from hydrate deposits in the Shenhu Area, South China Sea. SPE-131151-PP, 1–18.

Published

2015-10-02