Integration of best management practices in the Bay of Quinte watershed with the phosphorus dynamics in the receiving waterbody: What do the models predict?

Authors

  • George B. Arhonditsis Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada
  • Dong-Kyun Kim Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada
  • Yuko Shimoda Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada
  • Weitao Zhang Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada
  • Sue Watson Environment Canada, National Water Research Institute, Burlington, Ontario L7R 4A6, Canada
  • Shan Mugalingam Lower Trent Conservation, Trenton, Ontario K8V 5P4, Canada
  • Maria Dittrich Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M1C 1A4, Canada
  • Kristin Geater Environment Canada, Great Lakes Areas of Concern Section, North York, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada
  • Christine McClure Quinte Conservation, Belleville, Ontario K8N 4Z2, Canada
  • Bryon Keene Quinte Conservation, Belleville, Ontario K8N 4Z2, Canada
  • Andrew Morley Kingston Regional Office, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Kingston, Ontario K7M 8S5, Canada
  • Agnes Richards Environment Canada, National Water Research Institute, Burlington, Ontario L7R 4A6, Canada
  • Tanya Long Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Toronto, Ontario M9P 3V6, Canada
  • Yerubandi R. Rao Environment Canada, National Water Research Institute, Burlington, Ontario L7R 4A6, Canada
  • Rimi Kalinauskas Environment Canada, Great Lakes Areas of Concern Section, North York, Ontario M3H 5T4, Canada

Keywords:

eutrophication, phosphorus modelling, internal loading, watershed management, water quality criteria, sediment dynamics

Abstract

We present a modelling analysis of the management practices that could lead to significant reduction of phosphorus export from the Bay of Quinte watershed and an evaluation of the overall uncertainty associated with the assessment of the Beneficial Use Impairment Eutrophication and Undesirable Algae. Our work highlights the internal recycling as one of the key drivers of phosphorus dynamics in the Bay. The flow from the Trent River is the predominant driver of the upper Bay dynamics until the main stem of the middle area however, the sediments in the same segment release a significant amount of phosphorus and the corresponding fluxes are likely amplified by the macrophyte and dreissenid activity. From a management standpoint, the presence of a significant positive feedback loop in the upper Bay suggests that the anticipated benefits of additional reductions of the exogenous point and non-point loading may not be realized within a reasonable time frame (i.e. 5—10 years). Our analysis of nutrient loading scenarios shows that the restoration pace of the Bay could be slow, even if the riverine total phosphorus concentrations reach levels significantly lower than their contemporary values, <25 µg TP l−1. We believe that the on-going management decisions, monitoring, and modelling should also explicitly consider the role and broader ramifications of internal phosphorus loading into the system. The anticipated lessons from such a multi-faceted exercise are a unique aspect of the Bay of Quinte ecosystem because of the long history of research and monitoring data. This study can produce transferable knowledge to other systems worldwide, experiencing similar hysteresis patterns associated with internal nutrient loading.

References

Arhonditsis, G. B., Qian, S.S., Stow, C. A., Lamon, E. C., Reckhow, K. H., 2007. Eutrophication risk assessment using Bayesian calibration of process-based models: Application to a mesotrophic lake. Ecol. Model. 208, 215–229.

Basu, N. B., Rao, P. S. C. , Thompson, S.E., Loukinova, N.V., Donner, S. D., Ye, S., Sivapalan, M., 2011. Spatiotemporal averaging of in-stream solute removal dynamics. Water Resour. Res. 47, W00J06.

Bini, L., Thomaz, S., Carvalho, P., 2010. Limnological effects of Egeria najas Planchon (Hydrocharitaceae) in the arms of Itaipu Reservoir (Brazil, Paraguay). Limnology 11, 39–47.

Blukacz-Richards, E.A., Koops, M.A., 2012. An integrated approach to identifying ecosystem recovery targets: Application to the Bay of Quinte. Aquat. Ecosyst. Health Mgmt. 15(4), 464–472.

Carvalho, L., McDonald, C., de Hoyos C., Mischke, U., Phillips, G., Borics, G., Poikane, S., Skjelbred, B., Solheim, A.L., Van Wichelen, J., Cardoso, A. C., 2013. Sustaining recreational quality of European lakes: minimizing the health risks from algal blooms through phosphorus control. Journal of Applied Ecology 50, 315–323.

Chon, T.-S., Park, Y.-S., Moon, K. H., Cha, E. Y., 1996. Patterning communities by using an artificial neural network. Ecol. Model. 90, 69–78.

Dorazio, R. M., Johnson, F. A., 2003. Bayesian inference and decision theory: a framework for decision making in natural resource management. Ecol. Appl. 13, 556–563.

Gudimov, A., Ramin, M., Labencki, T., Wellen, C., Shelar, M., Shimoda, Y., Boyd, D., Arhonditsis, G.B., 2011. Predicting the response of Hamilton Harbour to the nutrient loading reductions: A modeling analysis of the “ecological unknowns.” J. Great Lakes Res. 37, 494–506.

Harmel, D., Qian, S., Reckhow, K., Casebolt, P., 2008. The MANAGE database: nutrient load and site characteristic updates and runoff concentration data. J. Envion. Qual. 37, 2403–2406.

Jacoby, J. M., Collier, D. C., Welch, E. B., Hardy, F. J., Crayton, M., 2000. Environmental factors associated with a toxic bloom of Microcystis aeruginosa. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 57, 231–240.

Johannsson, O. E., Millard, E. S., Ralph, K. M., Myles, D. D., Graham, D. M., Taylor, W.D., Giles, B. G., and Allen, R. E., 1998. The changing pelagia of Lake Ontario (1981 to 1995): A report of the DFO Long-Term Biomonitoring (Bioindex) Program. Can.Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2243.

Johnson M. G., Owen G.E., 1971. Nutrients and nutrient budgets in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario. Journal WPCF 43, 836–853.

Johnson, M. G., Owen, G. E., 1971. Nutrients and nutrient budgets in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario. Journal WPCF 43, 836–853.

Kim, D.-K., Zhang, W., Rao, Y., Watson, S., Mugalingam, S., Labencki, T., Dittrich, M., Morley, A., Arhonditsis, G. B., 2013. Improving the representation of internal nutrient recycling with phosphorus mass balance models: A case study in the Bay of Quinte, Ontario, Canada. Ecol. Model. 256, 53–68.

Kohonen, T., 1997. Self-Organizing Maps. Springer, New York.

Manning, P.G., 1996. Bioavailability of riverine, sewage plant, and sediment phosphorus in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario. Canadian Mineralogist 34, 667–675.

McMahon, G., Alexander, R.B., Qian, S., 2003. Support of total maximum daily load programs using spatially referenced regression models. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manage. 129, 315–329.

Minns, C. K., Moore, J. E., 2004. Modelling Phosphorus Management in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario in the Past, 1972 to 2001, and in the Future, Canadian Manuscript Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences No. 2695. Burlington, Ontario.

Minns, C. K., Moore, J. E., Seifried, K. E., 2004. Nutrient loads and budgets in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario, 1972 to 2001. Burlington, Ontario: Great Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Bayfield Institute.

Minns, C. K., Moore, J. E., Doka, S. E., St. John, M.A., 2011. Temporal trends and spatial patterns in the temperature and oxygen regimes in the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario, 1972–2008. Aquat. Ecosyst. Health Mgmt. 14(1), 9–20.

Moore, R. B., 2004. Estimation of total nitrogen and phosphorus in New England streams using spatially referenced regression models. New Hampshire: US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey.

Nicholls, K. H., Carney, E.C., 2011. The phytoplankton of the Bay of Quinte, 1972–2008: point-source phosphorus loading control, Dreissenid Mussel establishment, and a proposed community reference. Aquat. Ecosyst. Health Mgmt. 14(2), 33–43.

Nicholls, K. H., Heintsch, L., Carney, E., 2002. Univariate step-trend and multivariate assessments of the apparent effects of P loading reductions and Zebra Mussels on the phytoplankton of the Bay of Quinte, Lake Ontario. J. Great Lakes Res. 28, 15–31.

Project Quinte members, 2011. Project Quinte Annual Report 2009. Kingston, Ontario, Canada.

Reckhow, K. H., Arhonditsis, G. B., Kenney, M. A., Hauser, L., Tribo, J., Wu, C., Elcock, K.J., Steinberg, L.J., Stow, C. A., McBride S. J., 2005. A predictive approach to nutrient criteria. Environ. Sci. Technol. 39, 2913–2919.

Scheffer, M., Straile, D., van Nes, E. H., Hosper, H., 2001. Climatic warming causes regime shifts in lake food webs. Limnol. Oceanogr. 46, 1780–1783.

Schwarz, G. E., Hoos, A. B., Alexander, R. B., Smith, R. A., 2006. The SPARROW surface water-quality model: Theory, application, and user documentation: US Dept. of the Interior, US Geological Survey.

Seifried, K. E., 2002 Submerged macrophytes in the Bay of Quinte: 1972 to 2000, Department of Zoology. University of Toronto, University of Toronto.

Soldat, D. J., Petrovic, A. M., 2008. The Fate and Transport of Phosphorus in Turfgrass Ecosystems All rights reserved. No part of this periodical may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Permission for printing and for reprinting the material contained herein has been obtained by the publisher. Crop Sci. 48, 2051–2065.

Soldat, D., Petrovic, A. M., Ketterings, Q., 2009. Effect of Soil Phosphorus Levels on Phosphorus Runoff Concentrations from Turfgrass. Water Air Soil Pollut 199, 33–44.

Vanderploeg, H. A., Liebig, J. R., Carmichael, W. W., Agy, M. A., Johengen, T. H., Fahnenstiel, G. L., Nalepa, T. F., 2001. Zebra Mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) selective filtration promoted toxic Microcystis blooms in Saginaw Bay (Lake Huron) and Lake Erie. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 58, 1208–1221.

Vesanto, J., Himberg, J., Alhoniemi, E., Parhankangas, J., 2000. SOM Toolbox for Matlab 5.

Walters, C. J., 1986. Adaptive Management of Renewable Resources: Biological Resource Management. Macmillan, New York.

Watson, S. B., Borisko, J., Lalor, J., 2011. Bay of Quinte harmful algal bloom programmeL phase I - 2009. Bay of Quinte Remedial Action Plan: Monitoring Report #20. Kingston, Ontario, Canada.

Wellen, C., Arhonditsis, G. B., Long, T., Boyd, D., 2014. Accommodating environmental thresholds and extreme events in hydrological models: a Bayesian approach. J. Great Lakes Res. 40 (Supplement 3), 102–116.

Winter, J. G., Duthie, H.C., 2000. Export coefficient modeling to assess phosphorus loading in an urban watershed. JAWRA 36, 1053–1061.

Zhang, W., Kim, D.-K., Rao, Y., Watson, S., Mugalingam, S., Labencki, T., Dittrich, M., Morley, A., Arhonditsis, G. B., 2013. Can simple phosphorus mass balance models guide management decision?: A case study in the Bay of Quinte, Ontario, Canada. Ecol. Model. 257, 66–79.

Downloads

Published

2016-01-02

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 1 (2016)

Section

Research article

License

Manuscripts must be original. They must not be published or be under consideration for publication elsewhere, in whole or in part. It is required that the lead author of accepted papers complete and sign the MSU Press AEHM Author Publishing Agreement and provide it to the publisher upon acceptance.