Investigation of trends in extreme significant wave heights in the South China Sea
Keywords:
extreme wave, extreme climate change, extreme value theoryAbstract
The focus of this study was the temporal and spatial variations of extreme significant wave heights and nearshore return-period wave heights in the South China Sea, based on the wave model and European Reanalysis-Interim data from 1979–2016. Measured buoy data were available from near Yongxing Island for comparison with the reanalysis data during the passage of typhoons. Annual maximum significant wave heights showed a statistically significant increasing trend over most of the South China Sea, whereas statistically insignificant decreasing or increasing trends were observed for seasonal maximum significant wave heights associated with the different characteristics of the typhoon events. Nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis was used to investigate the influence of nearshore extreme significant wave heights derived from the Simulating Waves Nearshore model at four offshore locations in the South China Sea. The fastest increase of 100-year return significant wave heights was found to be 0.0033 m yr−1 in the western South China Sea. The results show that, in recent decades, no significant variation trends can be found in return-period wave heights at nearshore of South China Sea, which may be related to tracks of intense typhoons in the region.
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